When the Sky Is Falling, Find a Good Roof
Tue Nov 25, 2008 at 12:11 pm By Matt
The sky may be falling everywhere, financially speaking, but there are still plenty of roofs out there to hide under.
In fact, soon might not be a bad time to buy a house, and if not in China, then someplace where something is hitting the proverbial fan – make that ceiling fan.
You buy low and sell high. And clearly, in many parts of the world, housing prices are lower resulting from economic turmoil.
But playing the housing market is tricky now because it’s not clear whether prices will go even lower, or how long it will be before prices go higher, and you could flip that “abode” for a healthy profit.
Sure, all recessions since 1929 lasted for a period of two years or less – according to About.com. Therefore, arguably, recessions have been ideal times to buy housing. Buy low, wait a few years, and then have the option to sell higher.
But then there’s the Great Depression itself, which at least one smart economist argues in our Cool Aid podcast could happen all over again, beginning in China.
“In hindsight, that housing recession was not really a good time to buy real estate in the short term because the recession lasted 10 years,” About.com notes. “It was long enough that some survivors still fold up and save pieces of used aluminum foil.”
For those who are in the spirit of Asian housing investing, where are they looking now?
China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and Australia are among attracting attention from property investment managers.
“We are seeing a decline in values throughout the region. There are properties that are being sold at much lower prices than the market’s perception of their values,” LaSalle Investment Management regional director David Edwards told Reuters on Monday.
The firm’s Asia Pacific managing director Nicholas Wong already noted that housing is “30-40 percent off their peaks” in places throughout the region.
But Reuters also noted that rock bottom isn’t right around the corner, with its poll last week finding that analysts think Hong Kong and Singapore prices are likely to fall at least 20 percent next year.
On the mainland, oversupply and a slowing Chinese economy are causing housing prices to fall, in addition to the fact that China’s huge new stimulus plan encourages construction of new, affordable housing – in other words – more supply.
Meanwhile, the Chinese poster children – make that, husband and wife team – for real estate success, Zhang Xin and Pan Shiyi, are nonetheless down to a mere US$1.2 billion in personal fortune after their Soho company share stake – once valued at US$3.8 billion last year – plunged, according to Forbes.
Emulating these two isn’t such a good thing right about now, but – do we have to say it? - a billion left isn’t a bad thing.
So, to get rich in over the long term, you might want to consider buying some Asian property instead of tucking your savings away not-so-sweetly in a fixed income investment.
The question is, when?
Now, when prices are relatively lower, a year from now after the GDP dust settles, or ten years from now after regime change?
Just keep the vulture spirit alive, and surely you’ll be fine.
As Florida real estate mogul Peter Zalewski tells Business 2.0, snagging properties for cheap prices during a market slowdown “is pure capitalism. I am not trying to return anything to society. I am trying to make money.”




November 26th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Interestingly enough, my law firm has not gotten a single call in the last 3-4 months about buying real estate outside the US, but we are getting a whole stream of calls from Chinese, Russians and Koreans seeking to buy real estate in the US. The Russians and the Koreans see their currencies falling and want to jump ship. The Chinese see this as an opportunity to buy US real estate for less than in the past. So maybe the US is now the Pac-Rim country for real estate.
November 28th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Hi Dan,
That’s an interesting point. Being from Delaware, the thought has crossed my mind to buy a property there, and have my brother take care of it. I’ve resisted the idea because A) I didn’t want to come back to a scene out of Animal House and B) My parents own a nice home in a cute neighborhood there and it took a lifetime for the property value to rise in the way it has in China over the course of a few years. Clearly, the housing market in Asia is a lot weaker than before. And it really depends where you’re looking to buy - the U.S. is a vast place where many real estate fortunes have been made. So overall, the idea of buying stateside may not be a bad one right about now. But I think suggesting that the U.S., where much of this global trouble began, is looking like a dragon or tiger in any aspect of its economy is a real stretch.