By Valerie Sartor

Bill Emmott, the former chief editor of The Economist - that unique, thriving British weekly magazine that publishes astute but unsigned articles – has a not-so-interesting view on how China and India, along with Japan, will shape this century.

They will dominate it - duh.

Nonetheless, Mr. Emmott, who spoke at The Beijing Bookworm earlier this month about his newest book, Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade, provided some helpful insights for why those doing business in China should look for more regional synergies.

Namely:

• Political orientation is moot. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China are all on similar economic growth paths – namely, investment led economies with considerable openness to trade.
• India will be making more business headlines soon. “In 7-10 years India will be another economic focal point,” Mr. Emmott said. “In the last four years India has moved away from an economy dominated by services and is now investment oriented, growing from 25 percent of the GDP to 35 percent. Finance by domestic capital and trade and manufacturing industries are increasing, and like China’s history, are now growing faster than the service industries. The Indian economy is becoming an Asian type of economy.”




• Asia will be region that leads the globe economically. Mr. Emmott feels that Asia has already begun and will continue to dominate the global economy, as it did previously for hundreds of years before the English Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Today many of the so-called Asian economic tigers are roaring, many having been fueled by Western (mainly American) investment after WWII and recent technological implants from around the globe. Japan, Korea, and now China and India are all showing remarkable economic growth and success. China’s economy specifically has been doubling in size every seven years on average.

Asia’s unique history also suggests that it will overcome even its most vexing problems.

Mr. Emmott cited Frank Gibney, a now deceased authority on post-war culture and business in Japan. He wrote a book called Japan: The Fragile Superpower, which described the atrocious and toxic pollution and environmental destruction that Japan endured as it headed toward becoming a first world country. Mr. Emmott asked the audience to note that many of the environmentally destructive practices that Mr. Gibney described in Japan – which are now successfully resolved – could equally be used to describe today’s China. In effect he urged his listened not to worry too much about Beijing’s smog and China’s still weak environmental practices.

    Channel: Local Wisdom     |